DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/01 11:46
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 3 to 8 cents lower, soybeans are 13 to 20 cents lower, and wheat is
12 to 17 cents lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 600 points as active trade
continues. The dollar index is 60 points higher. Interest rate products are
higher. Energies are weaker with crude $0.05 lower. Livestock trade is sharply
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $9.00.
Corn trade is 3 to 8 cents lower at midday with the front months holding up
better with widespread liquidation. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with the
weekly report showing production 165,000 barrels per day lower, with stocks
1.55 million barrels higher. Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure
except for export-oriented locations. Rains will keep early fieldwork slow. On
the report, acres came in at 96.99 million vs. 94.33 million expected, with
stocks at 7.953 billion bu. 8.125 expected. On the May contract support is the
lower Bollinger Band at $3.25, and resistance the 20-day at $3.55.
Soybean trade is 13 to 20 cents lower with trade unable to push higher post
report with overbought conditions and little fresh bullish news. Meal is $3.00
to $4.00 lower and oil 100 to 110 points lower. South America is continuing to
harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of
strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak.
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive
with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better with time running down for soybeans
to make a decisive move. On the report, soybeans acres were 83.51 million vs.
84.865 expected, and stocks at 2.253 billion bu. 2.241 expected. The May
soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.67 which we are just below at midday,
and the recent high at $8.97 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 14 to 17 cents lower with front-month Chicago trade the
downside leader as the nearby inverses fade from a dime to 3 cents. Russia
continues to review export policies for the short term as well, with local
values elevated but fresh bullish news is needed to push wheat. Kansas City is
at a 73-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while
Minneapolis is minus 24 with narrower action this week. On the report acres
came in at 44.7 million vs. 44.982 million expected and stocks were 1.412
billion vs. 1.432 expected. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at
$4.61, with resistance the $5.13 upper Bollinger Band.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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